CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-11-25T04:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-11-25T04:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/35305/-1
CME Note: CME first visible to the SSE in SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2024-11-25T04:00Z. Also visible to the SSE in SOHO LASCO C3 and STEREO A COR2. This CME closely follows CME: 2024-11-25T03:12Z but is slightly slower and slightly wider and is clearly distinguishable in running difference imagery. There is not a clearly definitive source for this CME, but a possible candidate is a deflected source associated with an M1.1 flare from AR 3906 (S13E46) that peaked at 2024-11-25T01:59Z. Arrival on 2024-11-29T02:15Z is categorized by a quick increase in Bt from around 8 nT->12.5 nT, with Bz initially northward, with further enhancement possible as the signature develops. Small jump in solar wind speed from about 370 km/s->400 km/s with small bumps in density and temperature also observed. This is mainly the likely arrival of CME 2024-11-25T21:24Z, with possible additional influences from CMEs 2024-11-25T03:12Z and 2024-11-25T04:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-11-29T02:15Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-11-28T20:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/35308/1
Model Inputs:
2024-11-25T03:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-31.0, Lat.=-42.0, Speed=382.0, HalfAngle=31.0, Time21.5=2024-11-25T12:37Z
2024-11-25T04:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-16.0, Lat.=-33.0, Speed=315.0, HalfAngle=33.0, Time21.5=2024-11-25T14:50Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-11-28T20:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
BepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-26T10:00Z
Europa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-29T00:00Z
Juice with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-27T20:00Z
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-28T16:00Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-28T18:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-29T02:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 82.62 hour(s)
Difference: 6.25 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M) on 2024-11-25T15:38Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement